SO, HERE WE are. The UK has officially left the European Union (although the machinations have only just begun) and we are in the transition or implementation period. There are three potential outcomes at the end of this transition period. A UK-EU trade deal can come into force, and it will take time to adjust to all the changes to be made. The transition period may also be extended; or lastly, the UK could exit with no deal. What may happen at that time is impossible to know for the time being. However, it is interesting to note that our stock market has lagged behind most others since that unforgettable day in 2016 when 52% (of the 72% of those eligible Brits who did actually bother to vote) voted to leave. Continue reading Don’t Panic
“Let me embrace thee, sour adversity, for wise men say it is the wisest course.”
Given my not infrequent comments over the last 20 years regarding markets’ attitude to uncertainty, and the possible scenarios that may occur under varying economic situations, you may not be surprised to see me commenting on the current political and associated economic situation.
Refreshed by a gentle festive season, I sit down to pen my words of wisdom with a calm sense of optimism and a feeling that everything in the garden is rosy. Oh, sorry, I must have been thinking of a different year. This one seems to have started with the only thing better than bad news, being no news! Continue reading Dog’s Breakfast
Dear Reader, I have a confession to make. I don’t know what to say. Rare, indeed, for me, as sometimes I find it difficult to stop! I am starting to feel that the world is approaching ‘Trump Overload’ and because of that, I shall say no more on the subject – this issue. Continue reading Lost for Words
Here we are again in a New Year, and as I finish off my piece for this issue the 45th President of the United States is being sworn in, and a couple of days ago the Prime Minister told us that “Brexit was Brexit”, and it was likely to be hard! It remains to be seen exactly what flavour Brexit we will get, and in any event, it will take considerably longer than 2 years before we fully understand how the economy will fare outside the EU. Some things will undoubtedly change, but the UK has a long history of making the best of any situation, and in the long-term I’m sure we will be fine. There will be challenges, some domestic and, probably, more international. A number of European elections loom this year; and the rise of populism, which contributed to the EU referendum outcome and swept Donald Trump to US election victory, could pose a threat to the eurozone in the years to come. Continue reading Trump – from Bump to Slump?